North Korea and US midterm elections

The United States and North Korea are on the brink of resuming nuclear talks as President Donald Trump pushes for a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. The U.S. midterm elections are seen as a pivotal moment in this potential diplomatic effort, with foreign policy being a key factor in the upcoming vote. However, recent analysis suggests that this conventional wisdom may be misguided.

Historically, North Korea has waited until after elections to assess the political landscape and determine its advantages. Yet, this pattern appears to be outdated in the current political climate. Unlike past elections influenced by foreign policy crises, such as the Iran hostage situation in 1980 or the aftermath of 9/11, the impact of foreign policy on U.S. elections has diminished over the past half-century.

While foreign policy has affected at least a third of elections in this period, voters tend to focus more on failures than successes.

Therefore, despite President Trump's desire for a foreign policy win in the midst of the Iran war, there is little political upside for him to meet with Kim Jong-un before the midterm elections. American voters are unlikely to prioritize foreign policy when casting their ballots. Instead, the focus will likely remain on domestic issues that have a more immediate impact on their daily lives.