Jabber/XMPP: How Do We Gain Traction?

The author recounts their experience with Signal, a messaging app that, despite its strong security features and strong advocates, has not gained widespread traction. They highlight the app's flaws, such as unreliable notifications and issues with answering calls in certain modes, which have forced them to adapt and change their habits. Although Signal eventually added the ability to edit messages, the author questions the commitment of its vocal advocates to using the software long-term.

The author then delves into the debate surrounding the Extensible Messaging and Presence Protocol (XMPP) and its competitor, the Matrix platform. They argue that Matrix, with its public API, was created to address the perceived shortcomings of XMPP, such as a limited feature set and a high number of extensions. However, they point out that Matrix's user base remains significantly smaller than that of other popular messaging platforms like Conversations and Element X, both of which are based on XMPP.

The author provides download statistics from Google Play and F-Droid, comparing the popularity of various messaging apps. While Matrix-based apps have seen some success, they still lag far behind in terms of user numbers. The author questions the reasons behind this disparity, suggesting that it may be due to the network effect, where a messaging app's value is directly proportional to the number of users already using it.

The author concludes by noting that successful instant messaging apps often have survivorship bias - they only gain traction after establishing a user base, making it difficult to compare their success to failed competitors. They argue that the success of a messaging app is not determined by its features or interface, but rather by the ability to reliably deliver messages and reach friends.

The author suggests that despite the technical expertise and resources of major tech companies, they too have struggled to create a successful instant messaging app, emphasizing the challenge of overcoming the network effect.