Improved climate forecasts alone won't protect Africa's poorest farmers

Across Africa, communities are implementing nature-based solutions to combat the effects of climate change. These projects involve the restoration and management of mangroves, grazing lands, and urban green spaces. People rely on climate-related information provided by governments, funders, and researchers to make informed decisions, but the study found that these services may not fully meet their needs.

Researchers interviewed 530 individuals from community groups, government agencies, NGOs, intergovernmental organizations, parastatals, businesses, and research institutions across Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Madagascar, and South Africa. These participants engage in various activities such as protecting and restoring forests, mangroves, wetlands, and rangelands, as well as practicing conservation agriculture, agroforestry, rotational grazing, urban greening, and campaigns against overfishing and deforestation.

The study identified several key needs in climate services. Firstly, existing services should be improved to cater to different communities and regions. Secondly, new community-specific services are required, which should integrate weather and seasonal forecasts, projections about climate change, information on land, water, livelihoods, and local knowledge.

Over half of the participants expressed a desire for better versions of the information they currently use, primarily relying on rainfall and temperature forecasts, as well as warnings about heat waves, floods, and droughts. However, more than 80% of respondents identified limitations in existing climate services, with a significant concern being the absence of connection between traditional Indigenous and local knowledge forecasting and formal climate services.

Furthermore, access to climate information proved challenging for some, particularly in areas with limited mobile data, unreliable reception, or lack of smartphones. Technical reports also need to be simplified or explained in person by experts. Additionally, over 60% of respondents emphasized the need to strengthen climate-change literacy, including understanding climate change and its impacts, knowing available services, and gaining skills to interpret and apply the information.

Climate services should provide information not only about expected rainfall and temperatures but also explain how this information affects land, water, and natural resources managed by users. For example, participants managing grazing lands sought information on how rainfall and soil moisture would impact available forage for livestock.

Moreover, climate forecasts and projections should be combined with local social, health, and economic data, such as the impact of rainfall on animal health, livestock diseases, and the movement of people and animals.

Finally, participants requested climate information tailored to their specific communities, wards, or municipalities, including identifying flood-prone areas and recommended actions to mitigate risks. The researchers concluded that collaboration among scientists, providers, users, and local and Indigenous knowledge holders is crucial to develop comprehensive climate services that cater to the diverse needs of communities across Africa.