Fitch Solutions raises Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP

Fitch Solutions has significantly raised its forecast for Ghana's 2026 current account surplus to 7.8% of GDP, up from a previous projection of 5.2%. This optimistic revision stems from an exceptionally strong external sector performance during the first half of the year, primarily fueled by soaring commodity exports. In the first six months of 2026, Ghana recorded a substantial merchandise trade surplus of US$4.3 billion, a stark contrast to the average US$700 million first-half surplus recorded between 2016 and 2025.

The surge in gold export earnings and expanding crude oil shipments were the key drivers behind this robust performance. The substantial increase in foreign exchange inflows from these key commodities bolstered the nation's overall balance of payments position, surpassing initial market expectations. Going forward, while Fitch Solutions predicts a continued strong external buffer throughout 2026, the current account surplus may slightly decline in 2027.

Nonetheless, the firm anticipates the surplus will remain significant, underscoring the critical role commodity exports play in maintaining macroeconomic stability and exchange rate resilience. However, domestic financial indicators paint a more nuanced picture. Despite the robust external sector, commercial banks in Ghana faced a 38% increase in bad loan write-offs and depreciation provisions during the first half of 2026, amounting to GH¢1.23 billion, compared to GH¢893.0 million in June 2025.

The Bank of Ghana's July 2026 Monetary Policy Report indicated that asset quality risks remain elevated in the banking sector, although overall balance sheet health is showing signs of improvement, with the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio dropping to 16.1% in June 2026 from 23.1% in the same period the previous year.