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What a Single 3.07x Hides: From Mechanism to Distribution

Part 5 reported that under the September 4 market state, a -5% shock becomes -15.4% — a 3.07x amplification. A reader pushed back with the most useful question of the series: "the aftermath should be…

  • A 3.07x amplification hides behind a non-linear, uncertain distribution of outcomes.
  • The amplification mechanism is deterministic, but inputs are estimated and scenario-based.

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