Can Iran replace sea trade with land routes?

Iran has been exploring the possibility of replacing its maritime trade routes with land corridors in response to a US-led maritime blockade. The country has seven land neighbors and access to the Caspian Sea, providing numerous potential land routes for commerce. However, it remains uncertain whether these land routes have sufficient capacity to fully substitute for the lost maritime trade.

Northern Iran's ports have more than 30 million tons of nominal annual capacity, with less than one-third currently in use, indicating potential for increased grain, food, and general cargo. Other routes to Turkey, Central Asia, Russia, and other regions could also play a role. Yet, the volume of imports primarily through the southern maritime routes remains a significant obstacle.

Moving goods overland is considerably more expensive than shipping them by sea. For instance, shipping a container from China to Iran through southern ports costs about $3,000, while moving the same container overland costs around $12,000. This cost difference could add approximately $18 billion to Iran's trading expenses if land routes become the primary mode of transport.

Energy exports, particularly large crude shipments, pose additional challenges as they cannot be easily replicated through land or rail transport. While Iran's pipeline projects, such as the Goreh-Jask pipeline, offer some potential for reducing dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, they have not yet achieved their desired capacity levels.

Overall, land corridors can help maintain crucial economic activities and strengthen Iran's economic ties with neighboring countries. However, they cannot fully replace maritime trade, as they come with higher costs, limited capacity, and their own set of political dependencies.