AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Holds steady near 110.00, bearish technicals persist

During early European trading hours on Monday, the AUD/JPY cross traded around 110.10. The Japanese Yen gained ground against the Australian Dollar due to expectations that the Bank of Japan would raise its policy interest rate to 1.25% at the September meeting, the highest level in about 31 years. Inflation is nearing the BoJ's 2% target, prompting the hike.

MUFG analysts state that a 25 basis points increase is already priced in. Traders will closely watch the BoJ Governor's press conference for hints on future rate hikes. On the Australian side, there is a 76% chance of an RBA interest rate hike to 4.60% at the next meeting, according to Scotiabank. Japanese officials have resisted US attempts to influence Japan's macro policy, showing a determination to maintain policy autonomy.

In the technical analysis, AUD/JPY shows bearish pressure, holding below the 20-period Bollinger middle band and the 100-day moving average, with the RSI near oversold territory. Support is near 109.70, with further potential at August 3 low of 109.24 and March 31 low of 108.79. Resistance is at August 10 low of 111.63, then Bollinger middle band at 112.80 and 100-day MA at 113.00. A break above could lead to the Bollinger upper band around 115.90.