5 Freight Markets: Why Spot Rates Are Sending Mixed Signals

Spot rates have remained elevated, but the story behind freight markets varies significantly across different regions. This SONAR update examines national tender rejections, volumes, and spot rates, then focuses on five key markets: Cincinnati, Detroit, Joliet, Miami, and Houston. The key takeaway is that spot rates alone can be misleading; context matters when pricing freight, planning capacity, or predicting demand.

Despite national tender volumes and rejection rates declining, spot rates have remained high. The Truckload Rejection Index (STRI) fell to 13.22% week-over-week, and the Tender Volume Index (STVI) decreased by 10% both week-over-week and month-over-month. Carriers still have some negotiation power in the market, but the situation varies significantly by region.

Cincinnati and Detroit experienced the steepest spot rate increases among the five markets. Cincinnati's spot rates rose 20%, while rejections increased 15% and volumes grew 7%. The SONAR Haul Index for Cincinnati was 25.96, indicating a strong headhaul market. However, Detroit's 13% spot rate increase was more nuanced. Rejections fell 14%, and volumes only increased by 2%, leading to a negative haul index of 7.26, suggesting that rate strength is not primarily due to capacity constraints.

On the declining side, Joliet saw the most significant demand-led softening. Spot rates dropped 15%, rejections decreased 12%, and volumes fell 14%. Despite maintaining a positive haul index of 34, the retreat in Joliet is not solely due to capacity issues but rather reflects active demand pull-back.

Miami and Houston showed the least ambiguous trends. Miami's spot rates fell 24%, with rejections down 9.5% and volume down 17.8%, consistent with its chronic backhaul nature and a haul index of -34.5. Houston mirrored this softness, with spot rates down 15.4%, rejections dropping 25%, volumes declining 13%, and a haul index of -7.41, indicating a truly weak market.

The disparities across markets highlight the risks of relying solely on national averages. For brokers and shippers pricing freight or establishing carrier relationships, metro-level haul index data—measuring the balance between inbound and outbound volume—can provide insights into why rates move in ways that national rejection and volume figures do not predict. Even though national spot rates remain elevated, the STRI fell 9% week-over-week to 13.22%, and the STVI dropped 10%, giving carriers continued pricing leverage.