Sweden election forecast says vote too close to call

Stockholm — An analysis of early results from Sweden’s crucial general election indicates the contest remains too close to call, with the possibility of a late surge in support for the right-wing. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s conservative alliance had faced a downward trend in polls for nearly a year, narrowing the gap with the left-wing opposition during the last two weeks of a contentious campaign.

If he manages to defy the polls and maintain his position, Kristersson has pledged to appoint members from the Sweden Democrats, a populist-nationalist anti-immigrant party, for the first time in Sweden’s history. Two exit polls published after Sunday’s voting closed showed the left-wing bloc with a clear advantage, placing ex-PM Magdalena Andersson on track to reclaim the prime minister’s office.

However, public broadcaster SVT’s later examination of the results presented a more evenly divided picture, forecasting that Kristersson’s right-wing alliance would secure 174 seats while the left bloc would hold 175 seats in the 349-seat parliament. Swedish broadcaster TV4 echoed this projection, confirming a nearly even split: 176 seats for Andersson’s left bloc and 173 for Kristersson’s right-wing alliance.

For Andersson, such a narrow outcome would be a significant setback. Despite being sidelined from power for four years, she had been expected to reestablish her party’s dominance. However, her side’s substantial polling advantage vanished in the final days of the campaign. "Swedish elections are always close," Andersson told POLITICO during her campaign bus tour in Stockholm.

"When I’ve been around Sweden, a lot of people I’ve spoken to said they see things that the government has done that they like but there are also lots of things that they don’t like." With the fate of the far right at stake, the vote represents a watershed moment for Sweden and will be closely monitored by other European countries experiencing rising nationalist parties.

Even Andersson acknowledges that a left-wing victory would not eliminate the Sweden Democrats' presence, particularly if the final result is close. "The hate that they have spread through this election, and if they would become ministers and use their platforms as ministers to spread hate? Well, we’ll see if the Swedish people are very tempted on that," she said.

Kristersson, the leader of the conservative Moderate party, would most likely remain in power if the SVT forecast proves correct. He insists that the Sweden Democrats can be relied upon, having supported his coalition in the parliament for four years while driving through tough immigration and crime policies. He told POLITICO that appointing Sweden Democrats ministers would be under his strict control.

"Since I will be the person that is forming that government, and the person that will appoint every one of them, I can guarantee you that it will only be very skilled and experienced and people with good judgment that would be part of my government," he said.