Saudi pipeline outage threatens loss of 4% of global oil supply

Saudi Arabia faces the prospect of losing up to 4% of its global oil supply if it cannot quickly restart its major pipeline to the Red Sea, according to traders and buyers in the oil industry. The pipeline, which has been shut down since a drone attack, is responsible for transporting around 4 million barrels of oil per day, or 4% of the world's supply, to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. With the pipeline out of service, Yanbu now has only enough stocks to maintain exports for five to seven days.

The global supply crunch has already pushed fuel prices to record highs, triggered inflation worldwide, and caused US bond yields to reach the highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis. The damage to the pipeline could take as long as five to six weeks to repair, according to one source, while another estimates that repairs could be completed sooner, allowing the pipeline to resume partial pumping while repairs are underway.

Saudi Arabia's government media office and energy ministry have not yet provided any information about the extent of the damage or an estimated timeline for the pipeline's return to operation. Saudi Arabia had previously been spared from the effects of the wartime shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which has crippled oil exports from its neighbors. The pipeline has been crucial in rerouting around 4 million barrels per day, or 4% of global supply, to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

In addition to the Red Sea pipeline, Saudi Arabia has stocks of oil to supply customers for several days from Egypt's ports of Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea and Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean. However, without the resumption of operations on the east-west pipeline, Yanbu's storage capacity of around 35 million barrels, along with the capacities of Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir, will ultimately run out.

The International Energy Agency reported on Friday that Saudi Arabia's oil supply had fallen to a more than three-decade low in August, with reduced flows via Hormuz and the Red Sea. The World Bank estimates that world oil supply will decline by 5.7 million barrels per day, or about 6%, this year due to the various disruptions.