Iran war endgame

US President Donald Trump has forecasted that the Iran conflict will conclude "very soon," but the realities on the ground challenge this prediction. During a speech in Ireland on Saturday, Trump stated that in his assessment, the war would cease "right after election time," alluding to the US midterm elections in November. However, numerous events could occur between now and November, and wars are not so easily terminated.

If Trump is genuinely intent on concluding the war, he should promptly engage with Iran to reach a negotiated agreement. Given that the war has had a ripple effect across the Middle East, there are significant concerns. In recent days, there have been sporadic confrontations between the US and Iran, while the Saudi-Houthi ceasefire has ended, with Iran's allied group gaining more territory in Yemen.

They are also targeting the Bab al-Mandeb strait to prevent Saudi vessels from passing through. Additionally, the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia—a vital alternative for transporting petroleum following the Hormuz blockade—has been damaged, allegedly from Iraq. Saudi Arabia claims they have deferred action following a request from the "brotherly Iraqi government" but retains the right to respond.

Though Iran-backed militias are active in Iraq, no group has, as of now, claimed responsibility for the attack. In Lebanon, Israel's relentless bombardment aims to weaken Hezbollah; thousands of Lebanese have perished in these brutal assaults, with hundreds of thousands displaced. It is crucial to remember that a ceasefire in Lebanon was a vital component of the Islamabad MoU.

All these interrelated conflicts suggest that a Middle East ceasefire cannot wait until November. As the aggressor in this war, the US should initiate hostilities with Iran; Tehran should reciprocate. Discussions between Iran and the Gulf states about the Strait of Hormuz are planned for Monday in Oman. It is hoped that the regional states can reach an accord for the reopening of the vital waterway.

As a confidence-building measure, the US should declare a cessation of hostilities against Iran and an end to the blockade of Iranian ports. Wars are unpredictable, and American faith that Washington can control the pace of hostilities until November is unfounded. A peaceful resolution is needed now. Moreover, the war is highly unpopular in the US, and several top American generals reportedly cautioned their superiors against escalating.

Thus, it is time to end this misguided endeavor and resume channels of dialogue through trusted third parties such as Pakistan and other regional states.