Houthis' Yemen advance leaves Gulf states with uncomfortable choice

The Houthi takeover of Yemen's Red Sea coast is altering the power dynamics in the Gulf region, bringing Iran's influence to the forefront and putting Saudi Arabia and its neighbors in a tough spot. By controlling Bab el-Mandeb, a crucial shipping route, the Iran-aligned Houthis have created a new pressure point, threatening Saudi oil exports that have been rerouted from the Strait of Hormuz.

Analysts argue that by targeting Red Sea shipping while Iran restricts Hormuz, Tehran and the Houthis can drive up oil prices and trigger inflation, forcing the Gulf states to choose between enduring economic strain or cooperating with Iran to safeguard trade, energy flows, and economic stability. Fawaz Gerges, a Middle East analyst, noted that the Houthi capture of strategic islands near Bab el-Mandeb has significantly shifted the balance of power, giving Iran greater geopolitical and geoeconomic leverage over Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, the United States, and global trade.

Gulf states have been rerouting crude through Red Sea ports since the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, but the pipeline carrying oil was closed again after coming under attack. Discussions in Oman between Gulf Arab foreign ministers and their Iranian counterpart were postponed due to disagreements over the terms of the talks.

The U.S., however, has not agreed to a Saudi request for a strike on the Houthis, leading some Gulf capitals to believe that negotiations with Tehran are now a necessity for self-preservation. The conflict is a result of centuries of confrontations that have failed to change the reality that Iran is an unavoidable player in the region's energy and trade arteries, and the recent flare-up highlights Iran's step-by-step strategy.