Could Iran’s regime collapse? Inside the Israeli assessment of Tehran’s future - analysis
If Iran attacks, there will be no way back. Israel’s response, officials have indicated, would target critical national infrastructure that a collapsing regime would not be able to rebuild.
Recent developments in Iran have raised questions about the future of the Ayatollah regime. Israeli intelligence agencies have closely monitored the government's harsh crackdown on protesters, with reports detailing arrests, torture, and the disappearance of citizens. While initially unwilling to launch another operation like "Rising Lion," Israel's defense establishment has now warned of an inevitable military strike.
The primary motivation for this move is Iran's nuclear program, the production of thousands of ballistic missiles, and the moral obligation to prevent mass killings. The United States has also played a role in this assessment, with President Trump reportedly approving a joint strategic plan to create conditions for regime change.
Three key pillars have been identified to achieve this goal: alternative leadership, targeted influence campaigns, and ground operations. Israeli officials emphasize that airstrikes alone cannot topple the regime and stress the importance of economic sanctions and international cooperation to hasten the process.
The Iranian economy is struggling, with oil exports nearly frozen and rising unemployment. Military operations have preserved intelligence and operational gains, with Iran refraining from resuming uranium enrichment or transferring centrifuges. However, the country's defense industry has been damaged, and key facilities remain intact.
While Iran remains defiant and believes it can withstand the economic pressure, the United States is imposing broad sanctions on key allies, such as the UAE and China, to further isolate Tehran. Israeli officials warn that an Iranian attack on Israel would have no way back, with response measures targeting critical national infrastructure. Despite these tensions, Iranian officials remain concerned about another surprise attack.
Written by urgent.news from Jerusalem Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
