Australia must double down to meet our climate targets. Our new study shows how
Global warming is set to surpass the 1.5°C limit if governments worldwide fail to act.
The forthcoming El Niño event could temporarily push global warming towards 1.7°C or 1.8°C in 2027, potentially causing extreme heat and drought conditions in Australia. This emphasizes the urgent need for Australia to meet its climate targets and limit the magnitude and duration of "overshoot" – the degree to which global temperatures exceed the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
Australia's current energy system, heavily reliant on fossil fuels, accounts for more than 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions. To curb climate change, rapid transition away from fossil fuels is essential. Australia has committed to this goal at various international conferences, including COP28 in 2023, COP30 by signing the Belém Declaration, and the Santa Marta conference in April 2026.
To realistically meet Australia's climate targets, a Paris-aligned emissions pathway is necessary. This requires Australia to reduce its net emissions by 55% below 2005 levels by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. However, under current policies, Australia will only manage a 43% reduction by 2030, leaving a significant gap to be filled by 2050.
Decarbonisation, which involves shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources like wind and solar, is crucial to staying below the 1.5°C limit. To achieve this, electricity must constitute 50% of Australia's national energy demand by 2035. However, current policies are projected to only deliver 33% by 2035, falling short of the required 35% by 2035.
Australia's coal and liquefied natural gas production would also need to decline significantly by 2035. Coal exports would have to fall by 95% before 2040, while renewable energy would need to make up 50% of energy demand by 2035. These drastic changes in energy production and consumption patterns, coupled with substantial policy shifts, are essential for Australia to meet its climate targets and avoid the dire consequences of climate change.
Written by urgent.news from The Conversation AU's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.