Will the Fed Raise Rates on September 16? Polymarket Now Says 83%. Here’s What It Means for XRP and Bitcoin

Polymarket now predicts an 83% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16, signaling a potential 25 basis point move that may have minimal impact on Bitcoin and XRP. Bitcoin's correlation to rate-sensitive assets is at a record high, while XRP tends to fluctuate more than Bitcoin during Fed decision days. An unexpected pause in rate hikes could create a significant price surprise for both coins.

The probability of a 25 basis point hike has risen from around 30% before the Jackson Hole symposium to 83% after the August CPI release. A hike on September 16 would be the first in over two years. Core CPI rose 0.3% in August 2026, exceeding expectations, which could pressure the Fed to consider rate cuts. Both Bitcoin and XRP have already priced in the potential hike, so the market is already reflecting these odds. If a hike does occur, the reaction may be modest rather than significant.