The Prediction Archive
The Prediction Archive is a public database of tens of thousands of world predictions. Using AI it tracks predictions over many decades and marks to market. I was surprised to discover that I am currently the highest ranked individual predictor in the world! Huh, I would not have predicted that. Ranks are based on the […] The post The Prediction Archive appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION .
The Prediction Archive is a vast online repository containing predictions from around the globe, spanning several decades. Through the application of artificial intelligence, this archive meticulously tracks these predictions, employing a sophisticated system known as "marking to market." In the latest update, the author has been appointed the highest-ranking predictor in the world, a surprising feat that left them bewildered, as they had not anticipated this position.
The ranking system, based on the Wilson score, rewards not just accuracy but also the number of predictions made, thereby reducing uncertainty about the author's accuracy. While the author's accuracy was on par with Bryan Caplan, the latter made fewer predictions. Tyler made a greater number of predictions, though his accuracy was slightly less than the author's.
The AI algorithm that drives this prediction archive sometimes classifies certain contemporary events as predictions, an aspect to consider with a pinch of salt. It is projected that as the archive grows, the author's ranking may decline. Notable figures whose predictions are included in the archive are Peter Zeihan, Scott Alexander, and Warren Buffett.
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