Scope eleva el rating de España a 'A+' y cambia la perspectiva a estable

Spain's credit rating agency Scope Ratings has upgraded the country's long-term debt rating from A to A+, and changed the outlook to stable, citing strong economic growth, improved public finances, and reduced external vulnerabilities. The upgrade indicates that Spain now has greater capacity to pay its debt, meaning the agency views the country's economic and financial situation more positively and believes the risk of Spain struggling to meet its debt is lower.

Scope predicts Spain's economy will grow by 2.6% this year and 2.1% in 2027, while estimating an average growth rate of around 2% for the period 2026-2031, above the economy's potential of 1.7%. The agency highlights the strength of domestic demand, employment trends, investment, and the contribution of migration flows to growth.

In the fiscal area, Scope notes that the deficit fell from 3.3% of GDP in 2023 to 2.4% in 2025 and expects it to remain around 2.3% for the period 2026-2031. The agency also estimates that Spain's public debt, which stood at 100.7% of GDP in 2025, will fall below 92% by 2031. The main challenges for Spain, according to Scope, include an elevated level of public debt, structural unemployment, pressures on spending due to an aging population, and parliamentary fragmentation.

These factors could limit the government's ability to act in future economic or financial problems. For its part, the Ministry of Economy, Commerce, and Enterprise sees the rating upgrade as evidence that international agencies, markets, and investors are recognizing Spain's economic strength and modernization. They note that Spain has improved its rating in recent years and now finances its debt at a lower cost than France and Italy.

Economía has highlighted that Spain's debt fell to 100.7% of GDP in 2025, below the 101.4% forecast in the Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan, and that the government's 2026 forecast sees the ratio at 99.3%. Since reaching its high point at the beginning of 2021, Spain's debt has fallen by nearly 26 percentage points, while the deficit has improved by 7.5 points since 2020.

The Ministry notes that this evolution allows Spain to maintain good access to markets. In this regard, it highlights record demand in recent sovereign Treasury issuances and points out that the average cost of the debt portfolio is now 2.43%, compared to 4.07% in 2011.