QNB: Emerging markets face both promise and disruption from artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) presents emerging markets with both promising opportunities and disruptive risks, according to Qatar National Bank (QNB). The bank emphasizes the urgency to capitalize on these opportunities to prevent emerging markets from being left behind in the global AI economy. To achieve this, QNB identifies three key areas for decisive action: strengthening digital infrastructure, developing data ecosystems, and investing in skills development.

The report suggests that early adoption of these measures will position economies to leverage AI as a catalyst for catch-up growth, while failure to do so risks widening the gap with technological leaders.

AI is poised to become a transformative economic force, with the global market projected to grow exponentially to around USD 4.8 trillion by 2033, according to the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD). While advanced economies stand to gain substantial productivity gains, emerging markets face more complex challenges and double-edged implications.

AI can accelerate development, enhance public services, boost industrial know-how, and bypass outdated infrastructure. However, it also threatens to undermine competitive advantages that have been built over decades and exacerbate economic disparities, particularly in nations with service sectors reliant on low-cost manual labor.

The report underscores the high stakes for developing economies, highlighting the potential of AI to raise productivity and boost growth. In areas constrained by skilled labor shortages and institutional weaknesses, AI-enabled tools can extend the reach of scarce expertise. For instance, AI translation models can support regional dialects and low-resource languages, reducing communication barriers. Similarly, personalized tutors can enhance access to quality education and adapt lessons to individual students' skill levels.

In healthcare, AI-assisted diagnostics can extend services to rural areas and enhance the accuracy of initial diagnoses, potentially improving infant mortality rates and average life expectancy. The finance sector stands to benefit from AI-assisted credit scoring using unstructured and behavioral data, which can expand credit availability to small producers and entrepreneurs while mitigating related credit risks.

Mobile technology, which has enabled developing countries to bypass fixed-line and internet broadband networks, could further be augmented by AI, potentially creating entirely new industries.

On the flip side, AI will disrupt labor markets and the development models that have traditionally supported emerging economies. Approximately 40% of jobs in emerging markets are vulnerable to AI, particularly in industries and services characterized by manual and routine work. Generative AI and AI agents can now handle simple cognitive tasks, data processing, and basic billing at a lower cost than employing offshore staff.

This impact is already evident in India's USD 300 billion IT outsourcing industry, where routine junior developer and business process outsourcing roles are experiencing significant disruption, resulting in steep declines in campus recruitment across Indian technology hubs. The Nifty IT index, tracking India's largest software companies, has fallen by around 15% this year, in contrast to a 20% increase in the broader MSCI Emerging Markets Index.