Oil falls but head for 8% weekly gain on tight supply; US diesel hits record

Brent crude futures fell by US$3.10, or 2.9%, to US$104.53 a barrel on Friday, Sep 11. However, the market appeared poised for an 8% weekly gain despite tight supply due to attacks along Middle East shipping routes. US diesel prices hit a record high, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also fell by US$2.23, or 2.9%, to US$100.25 a barrel.

Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since mid-May. Initial gains were reversed after a report from the Financial Times suggested Middle Eastern foreign ministers were attempting to negotiate a temporary deal with Iran to facilitate shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. While the threat of prolonged supply disruptions due to attacks in the region had weighed on oil prices, traders began to reassess the risk on Friday.

Phil Flynn, a senior analyst with Price Futures Group, noted that the situation was improving, but the market's stability over the weekend remained uncertain. Satellite imagery captured smoke near Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which was reported to have been damaged by Iran-affiliated militants, contributing to the price decline.

Despite this, the market's reaction seemed inconsistent with the reported impact on oil production. The US national average diesel price surpassed US$6 a gallon for the first time, driven by supply disruptions from both the Iran conflict and Russian refinery attacks. Commerzbank raised its year-end Brent crude forecast to US$85 a barrel and diesel to US$1,200 a tonne, while increasing its jet fuel forecast to US$1,230 a tonne.