Meloni sees Italy 2026 growth at 1%, matching euro zone

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has forecasted a 1% economic growth for 2026, matching the euro zone, according to an interview with Il Foglio. Her government previously projected a 0.6% growth in 2026, but the budget watchdog UPB recently raised the forecast to 0.9%. Meloni's optimism is based on Italy's robust performance so far this year, with GDP rising by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter and 0.2% in the second quarter.

Acquired growth is estimated at 0.8% at the end of June, indicating that even if GDP remains flat in the final two quarters of 2026, the country's full-year growth would still be 0.8% higher than in 2025. However, Meloni acknowledges that Italy has struggled to achieve sustained growth due to factors such as energy costs and low productivity.

She emphasized that while her government is addressing these issues, the results will likely be visible only in the medium term. Despite receiving billions of euros in COVID-19 recovery funds from the European Union, Italy's GDP has not exceeded 1% over the past three years.