Is a Stock Market Crash Looming Under President Donald Trump? Nearly 156 Years of History Offers Up an Unpleasant Truth for Wall Street.

For nearly 156 years, the stock market has been a reliable engine for wealth creation. Under President Donald Trump's leadership, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have all experienced significant gains. During Trump's first term, the indexes surged 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively. This pattern has continued in his second term, with gains of 23%, 29%, and 35% through September 4, 2026.

Several factors have fueled optimism on Wall Street, such as the growth of artificial intelligence, strong corporate earnings, and record share buybacks. These positive trends may be set to end, however. History suggests that markets with premium valuations often experience significant declines. The Shiller P/E Ratio, which compares valuations over nearly 156 years, has recently reached levels similar to those seen before major market crashes.

This metric, which considers average earnings over the previous decade, has averaged 17.42 and recently hit 41.41, nearing its all-time high of 44.19 set in December 1999.

While the Shiller P/E Ratio doesn't predict exact downturns, it has historically foreshadowed significant market declines following previous spikes. This analysis suggests a higher probability of a stock market crash under President Trump, but history also shows that market corrections and bear markets are normal and usually short-lived.