Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire’s export sectors face heightened risks due to El l Niño – Fitch Solutions

Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, two major cocoa exporters, face increased risks to their export sectors due to the impending El Niño weather phenomenon, according to Fitch Solutions. The UK-based firm warns that the October-December cocoa crop development period overlaps with the expected peak of El Niño conditions, which could lead to lower rainfall and higher temperatures during critical pod development stages.

This reduction in yield could negatively impact export earnings, government revenue and rural incomes. In addition to the direct impact on the cocoa industry, Fitch Solutions highlights the broader risks for food security and inflation in the region. Rice imports make up a significant portion of consumption in countries like Senegal (69%), Côte d’Ivoire (49%) and Ghana (47%), making them particularly vulnerable to El Niño-driven reductions in global rice supplies.

Beyond the cocoa sector, Sub-Saharan Africa experiences various risks. In East Africa, stronger October-December short rains due to El Niño can result in flooding, crop damage, disease outbreaks and transportation disruptions, affecting the environment and governance risks according to Fitch Solutions’ Environmental Sustainability and Governance (ESG) Country Risk data.

The high dependency on global wheat prices in many East African economies could exacerbate inflationary pressures if sustained increases occur due to disruptions in the Black Sea region. Moreover, commodity-exporting nations, such as copper and gold exporters, face additional challenges from weaker prices, which could erode export earnings, fiscal revenue, and foreign exchange inflows.

Fitch Solutions notes that while they predict a decrease in copper and gold prices due to a potential US-Iran conflict resolution, there remains a risk of weaker-than-expected prices if market reactions to positive developments persist, and the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates regardless.