DeVonta Smith Fantasy Week 1 Start or Sit: A Spike Week Out of the Gates

DeVonta Smith's Week 1 performance has led to questions about whether to start or sit him. In four games against Washington, a team with a bottom-3 Defensive Impact grade, Smith has averaged 43.5 yards per game and 1.6 yards per route. This performance may be attributed to a random variation rather than an indication of his true skill level.

The Commanders' defense has held Smith in check in these matchups, but given their recent struggles, I believe the variance is likely to even out. Smith has reached triple figures in air yards 27 times in his career, and with A.J. Brown now with the Patriots, it's expected that this run-heavy offense will target him frequently. This season, Smith is on track to surpass the 1,200-yard mark, and I expect him to be at or above this pace by the end of Week 1.