BRICS summit: What trajectory of China-India ties means for the grouping

On Saturday, Chinese President Xi Jinping returned to India for the third time since assuming presidency, marking his first visit since a seven-year hiatus largely due to the 2020 border standoff. Though ostensibly attending the BRICS leaders' summit, the conditions stemming from this incident add significance to Xi's trip. The state of their bilateral relations and the turbulent global scenario will significantly influence the summit.

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attacks, under the nomenclature "BRIC," the grouping's trajectory has varied greatly. China has surged ahead to become the second-largest economy after the US, while India has grown at a moderate rate but has fallen behind Beijing. Meanwhile, Russia has faced challenges due to its own conflicts, and Brazil has struggled with regime changes and scandals.

Since 2009, the first BRICS summit, China has grown stronger, weathering the global financial crisis better than many Western nations. However, in the past decade, China's assertive and aggressive stance, particularly in its neighborhood and the South China Sea, has become more prominent. This is in stark contrast to India's perspective, where the situation has been marked by belligerence from the Chinese state.

Border tensions have been a major issue between India and China, with major standoffs dating back to 1962 and 1967. More recent ones include the 2013, 2014, 2017, and ongoing clashes in eastern Ladakh since 2020. The 2020 clashes resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian defense personnel and at least four Chinese defense personnel. Despite diplomatic and military-level talks that led to a disengagement of troops in 2024, significant structural differences persist, including the massive trade deficit and lack of market access for Indian businesses.

The BRICS summit, held with India as the host, is taking place amidst these complex conditions. The US government's actions under President Donald Trump over the past one-and-a-half years have further complicated the picture. His arbitrary tariff moves have impacted global economies, including China and India, and both nations now share the same side in countering these effects.

Additionally, China's and Russia's actions in their respective neighborhoods have raised concerns about violating territorial integrity and sovereignty, issues that also affect other BRICS members.