Analysts: Umno-Pas cooperation carries political risks and opportunities

Analysts suggest that closer political collaboration between Umno and Pas could yield political advantages but also pose risks, as Umno moves to establish a committee to assess such cooperation with Pas. Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub stated that the proposed understanding would enable Umno to retain flexibility in evaluating the viability of deeper cooperation with Pas, including monitoring the reactions of their grassroots, Pas, and existing political allies.

Umno president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi clarified that the Grand Collaboration is not a merger but an understanding to prevent electoral conflicts. The arrangement is a serious opening for negotiations, but its importance hinges on whether both parties can agree on candidates, constituencies, and relationships with other political partners.

Umno and Pas have historically competed for Malay-Muslim voters, making closer collaboration between the two parties politically significant. Umno secretary-general Datuk Dr Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki announced that the party would form a negotiation committee to explore political cooperation with Pas, following demands from leaders and delegates at the 2026 Umno General Assembly for closer ties.

Dr Tawfik noted that relations between Umno and Pas leaders have improved, although trust remains cautious and conditional. Reciprocal visits to party assemblies and Umno president Zahid's comment about "blue meets green" indicate a willingness to resume political communication. However, the failure of the previous Muafakat Nasional arrangement continues to influence perceptions.

Umno delegates will seek assurance that Pas will uphold a new agreement, while Pas must also consider its ongoing relationship with Bersatu and Perikatan Nasional. A comprehensive alliance remains challenging in the short term, but a limited electoral understanding, such as an agreement to avoid three-cornered contests in select constituencies, is more feasible.

This cooperation could enable both parties to gauge each other's sincerity, consolidate Malay votes, and prevent support from fragmenting in marginal constituencies. However, it is important to note that votes cannot be simply combined, as some moderate Malay and non-Malay voters might perceive the partnership as increasingly conservative or exclusively Malay-Muslim, potentially undermining the Barisan Nasional's multiracial appeal and placing MCA, MIC, and other BN partners in an awkward position.

The pact's electoral value would depend on how it is presented; if portrayed as stable and inclusive power-sharing, it could broaden support, but if framed narrowly around ethnic and religious mobilisation, it might secure the core Malay electorate while losing voters in mixed constituencies. In terms of an Umno-Pas victory in Melaka and significant national gains, Dr Tawfik believes that the Barisan Nasional remains strong in Melaka, having won 21 out of 28 state seats in the 2021 election.

Cooperation with Pas could further strengthen Malay support and reduce three-cornered contests. Nevertheless, significant national gains would still depend on disciplined seat negotiations, efficient vote transfers, and retaining moderate, non-Malay, Sabah, and Sarawak voters. UMNO-Pas cooperation could bolster both parties, but it does not guarantee control of Putrajaya.

Geostrategist and Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research senior fellow Professor Dr Azmi Hassan stated that Umno grassroots believe working with Pas is the only way to protect Malay rights, Islam as the religion of the Federation, and the monarchy. Trust between Umno grassroots and Pakatan Harapan remains very low, particularly due to the DAP's involvement in the coalition.

Dr Azmi emphasized that the perception of control is crucial; Umno must demonstrate they are in charge, not Pas. He added that the success of such cooperation would depend on how Umno manages the arrangement, showing they are the driving force behind it.