Xi’s first India trip since 2019 extends olive branch

Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in New Delhi this weekend for his first post-Covid visit to India, marking the beginning of a delicate detente with his rival nation. The BRICS summit, where Xi will attend, provides a platform for both leaders to manage tensions and explore opportunities for cooperation.

Xi's visit, occurring after a two-year absence since 2019, highlights the significance of BRICS to Beijing and the value China places on maintaining strong ties with India. The trip comes after a period of strained relations, marked by border clashes in 2020 and a suspension of travel between the nuclear-armed neighbors due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

During his visit, Xi is expected to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, discussing areas such as economic ties, people-to-people exchange, and border dispute management. However, numerous tension points continue to linger, including India's concerns over Chinese export controls on key machinery and inputs, Beijing's apprehensions over India's alignment with the United States, and China's defense cooperation with Pakistan.

India and China have made some progress in restoring direct flights and easing curbs on Chinese investment, while engaging in limited border negotiations. However, the relationship remains fragile and tactical, driven by shared frustration with US tariffs rather than a fundamental strategic reset.

Despite the ongoing challenges, some signs of progress have been observed, such as increased cooperation on green technology and efforts to address rare-earth supplies from China to India. Experts suggest that a successful Xi-Modi meeting could include a framework for dialogue on trade and investment, as well as measures to address the root causes of their longstanding tensions.