With Fed rate hike all but assured, here's how markets might react
Traders could look past an expected Fed hike and weigh what higher rates are signaling about the economy.
Gold prices experienced a mixed day on Friday, with the precious metal heading for a weekly decline of nearly 2%, driven by increased expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, a decline in U.S. Treasury bond prices, and soaring oil prices. At 15:34 ET (19:34 GMT), spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,346.00/oz, while gold futures fell 0.4% to $4,388.26/oz.
Over the course of the week, contracts had slipped 1.9%, with spot gold also set for a three-week losing streak. Investors were closely monitoring the latest consumer price index (CPI) report, with headline and core CPI both ticking up slightly in August compared to estimates. The CPI data bolstered the likelihood of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raising interest rates by a quarter-point next week.
Higher interest rates tend to negatively impact non-yielding assets like gold and strengthen the dollar, making bullion more expensive for foreign buyers. Economic indicators, such as the nonfarm payrolls and August producer price index (PPI) report, further pointed towards tighter monetary policy. Additionally, the surge in oil prices due to tensions between the U.S. and Iran exacerbated inflation concerns and put pressure on Americans at the pump.
The U.S. bond market, particularly longer-term maturities, had been reacting to the rising odds of Fed rate hikes since the July rate decision. The Treasury Department's surprise intervention to boost longer-term instrument buybacks had not yielded the desired effect. With Core CPI showing a 0.3% month-over-month increase, the Fed now faces a difficult decision, as it struggles to justify leaving rates on hold.
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