Will Africa's Next Growth Story Start on the Farm?

Africa stands on the brink of a major growth story, with agriculture poised to lead the way. Despite decades of efforts, the continent faces numerous challenges, including climate shocks and market shifts. At the Africa Food Systems Forum 2026 in Kigali, Rwanda, the focus was on farmer profitability as a simple solution to ensure a resilient food system.

Elizabeth Wathuti, founder of the Green Generation Initiative, emphasized that if farmers prosper, food systems will be more resilient. However, agricultural production in Africa has increased, but growth isn't always durable. Farmers generate less value than their counterparts globally, with an annual income of $1,500 per worker compared to $4,300 globally.

Higher profits would not only ensure farmers can continue farming and attract younger people to the sector but also stimulate investment in processing, trading, and other value chain functions, leading to further economic growth. Currently, only 12-15% of Africa's agricultural GDP comes from processing, compared to over 60% in developed regions.

Agricultural outputs could also serve as the foundation for new industries, such as biofuels. From a climate perspective, higher profits create adaptive capacity, allowing farmers to invest in irrigation, improved seeds, better soil health, or absorb a bad season. Kingsley Moghalu, president of the Institute for Governance and Economic Transformation and a former central banker in Nigeria, argued that food systems should be the economic growth agenda, not just a development or humanitarian concern.

Investing in Africa's agricultural sector has additional benefits. As the first to be hit hard by climate change, Africa's struggles may make it a natural place to innovate solutions before they migrate to other developed markets. Furthermore, more mature agri-food systems in Africa create opportunities for investors and companies to do business in the continent that might not have considered it otherwise.

The discussion at the forum offered an interesting reframe that can be applied across geographies and sectors. Ultimately, profitability may be a prerequisite for durable climate action.