Why do GDP figures face a controversy in India?
Frequent revisions and claims and counter-claims by the government and the Opposition lead to disputes
The controversy surrounding India's GDP figures stems from a series of changes implemented in 2015. Initially, the base year for GDP calculation was altered from 2004-05 to 2011-12, followed by a shift in methodology, including the use of the Corporate Affairs Ministry's MCA-21 database and market rates instead of the factor cost. These changes have sparked debates and accusations on both sides of the political spectrum.
Former Finance Secretary Saurabh Garg made a notable claim in September 2026, stating that the nominal GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2026-27 was merely 2.6%, rather than the government's reported 10.3%. To arrive at this figure, Garg utilized GDP data from the base year 2011-12 and compared it to the corresponding 2026 figure calculated using the new base year 2022-23.
The Congress party, led by Jairam Ramesh, condemned the government's claim of robust economic growth as "statistical jugglery" and at odds with the conditions on the ground. Garg further criticized the government's response to his allegations, stating that it was "officialese and obfuscatory."
The Central Statistical Organisation released GDP growth data for previous years using the new base year and methodology, revealing that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government's average growth was 6.7%, compared to the Modi government's average of 7.35% during its first four years. This revelation reignited the controversy, with veteran Congress leader P. Chidambaram calling the National Statistical Commission's revised GDP numbers a "joke" and former Finance Minister Arun Jaitley defending the CSO's credibility.
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