Why Are Russian Drones Flying Into NATO Countries’ Territory? — ISW Explains

The Kremlin gains an advantage from Russian drone incursions into NATO and Moldovan airspace, particularly when it involves jet-powered drones, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). On September 8, a Russian drone remained in Moldova and Romania's airspace for approximately an hour. Following this, it crossed into Romania before returning to Moldova and eventually crashing near the village of Mihăileni-Vechi.

Ukrainian social media suggested the drone was a "Geran-4," although ISW could not independently verify this. Romanian and Moldovan authorities reported that the drone's flight path and duration indicated it was jet-powered. Recent weeks have seen Russia intensify its use of jet-powered "Geran" drones. Romanian authorities have also reported other potential Russian drones in Romanian airspace and near its borders.

ISW contends that the purpose behind these drone flights over or near Moldovan and Romanian territory is unclear, but Moscow likely benefits from them. These violations compel NATO to prioritize its own airspace defense, cast doubt on NATO's Article 5 mutual defense guarantees, and potentially dissuade Alliance countries from further supporting Ukraine.

Russia's utilization of jet-powered "Geran-4" drones reduces Moldova and NATO's response time, complicating air defense operations, particularly when threats cross national borders. The "Geran-4" can reach speeds of up to 450 km/h, necessitating about six minutes to reach Moldova's border from Odessa and approximately 20 minutes to reach Romania's.

ISW posits that Russia may employ the "Geran" to further test Moldovan and NATO defense systems and evaluate the Alliance's response to airspace violations.