Why a Divided BRICS Poses No Challenge to America

When the leaders of BRICS, the bloc of emerging economies, convene in New Delhi for their 18th summit, they will have much to discuss. The group has expanded from its original four members—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—to now include South Africa and 11 other countries. The summit aims to explore how their collective political and economic power could build an alternative to the American-led global order.

While the absence of the United States has presented opportunities for the bloc, their ambitions are limited by the fact that the four founding members—India, China, Russia, and Brazil—do not align particularly well. India, the host nation, seeks to make the most of the summit without ruffling any feathers from the United States, which is crucial as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in Asia.

Both India and Brazil have also been hesitant to support Russian and Chinese proposals for a common BRICS currency or new lending to Russia, which is under sanctions. China, under President Xi Jinping, is keen to expand its global influence. Xi hopes to use the summit as a platform to showcase China as a stable and reliable alternative to American influence.

He also aims to weaken the dollar's dominance as the world's primary reserve currency by encouraging more non-dollar lending, increased use of the renminbi in trade, and progress toward integrating digital payment systems, though India has been resistant to these ideas. Observers will pay close attention to the nonverbal cues between Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as their relationship is crucial given the tense history of border clashes between their nations.

The leaders prioritize presenting a united front, despite their differences on key issues. Russia aims to garner diplomatic, political, and economic support for its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, while Brazil hopes to establish new economic ties and reaffirm its commitment to the BRICS partnership, even if a potential change in leadership could affect this commitment.

The summit will also witness the presence of new members Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, bringing fresh tensions to the agenda and potentially awkward photo opportunities. The leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are expected to send lower-ranking officials instead of themselves. The primary concern is how the summit's final communiqué will address the war in Ukraine.

The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit included implicit criticism of the United States and Israel, and it remains to be seen whether the UAE delegation will allow similar language from Delhi. Despite these challenges, it is unlikely that BRICS will become an anti-American or anti-Western bloc in the near future. The bloc's influence is already constrained by the rivalry between China and India, as the former seeks higher energy prices while the latter prefers lower ones.

Additionally, the bloc now includes American allies or partners such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Indonesia, which will impose further checks on BRICS's ambitions. These nations seek to mitigate their dependence on an increasingly unpredictable America and maintain stable relationships with the global superpower.