Trump’s $5,000 dividend could cost $1.4 trillion – but where will the money come from?

President Donald Trump has pledged to give $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans maintain control of Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. This proposal has prompted concerns about its legality, cost, and funding source. Federal laws prohibit offering payments for votes or federally funded benefits in exchange for political support, which Trump's offer seems to violate since it is more akin to a campaign promise rather than a legally binding agreement.

Any payment would require congressional approval, as the US Constitution prohibits the president from spending Treasury funds without an appropriation made by law. However, Trump claims Congress would not need to authorize the payments. There are approximately 276.8 million adults in the United States, so distributing $5,000 to each would cost $1.384 trillion.

If restricted to US citizens, the price would be about $1.27 trillion. During the pandemic, Congress approved payments to eligible tax filers and their dependents, reducing the cost to around $814 billion in total. Experts view direct cash handouts as "helicopter money," a term used for no-strings-attached payouts meant to stimulate the economy.

With US inflation at 3.4%, injecting roughly $1.27 trillion could further drive prices up, exacerbating existing inflationary pressures. Furthermore, the government collected $195 billion in customs duties in 2025, meaning a $1.4 trillion payout would consume nearly seven years of revenues from Trump's trade policies. The Supreme Court has struck down many of Trump's tariffs, forcing the Treasury to refund importers with interest, leading to negative customs revenue in May through July.

Economists warn that spending over $1 trillion on a new one-time payment program could increase the deficit to nearly $3 trillion, even with revenue from Trump's remaining tariffs. Democratic leaders have harshly criticized Trump's proposal, with California Governor Gavin Newsom calling it a "fantastically reckless and dysfunctional presidency," while Representative Jamie Raskin deemed it a "political bribe" to buy votes.