Trump Loses the Other Strait

In a recent turn of events, the Iran war has taken an unexpected direction. Earlier, it seemed the conflict was favoring America, with the Houthis—the Iran-allied militia in Yemen—facing pressure from local rivals and Saudi air strikes. President of Yemen's recognized government confidently predicted the Houthi collapse. However, these hopes quickly vanished as Houthi forces broke through enemy defenses and seized control of towns and islands surrounding the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a crucial global maritime passage.

This loss leaves President Trump with a bitter surprise, as Iran now controls both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab, through which a third of the world's oil shipments pass daily. The Gulf states' failure to unite against the Houthis has been disastrous, echoing Trump's own strategy shortcomings. Despite the Houthis' ability to threaten Red Sea shipping, the Bab al-Mandab capture solidifies their stranglehold on the strait, making it easier and cheaper to control shipping.

While the U.S. might not be able to help through air strikes, the lack of a coordinated strategy and battered Yemeni allies limit their options. The Houthi advance is a severe blow to Saudi Arabia, which has been struggling to contain the Houthi threat on its border. The Houthis, born from Saudi meddling, now control a mix of Saudi and Emirati supplies.

Disunity among Yemeni factions, despite recent tensions, has further benefited the Houthis. With momentum on their side, the Houthis could seize more territory, including Marib province with its vital oil reserves, or engage in bloodless deals with regional leaders. This consolidation of power strengthens their Iranian backers. The Mecca Alliance, formed by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, now faces doubt as Pakistan and Turkey show no willingness to aid the Saudis.

Iran's Axis of Resistance, though formidable, lacks cohesion, as the Houthis showed during the recent U.S.-Israeli bombings. The Houthis and Iranians share a deep ideological bond, leading to willing sacrifices from their soldiers. As long as the Houthis can damage a few oil tankers, they hold the upper hand over their neighbors and the world.