THE GATHERING 2026: SA has reduced violent crime before and can do it again, says justice expert

Violent crime in South Africa has been on the decline, but the progress is uneven and vulnerable, warns Lizette Lancaster, head of the Justice and Violence Prevention Programme at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). Organised crime, illegal firearms and weak police detection remain significant challenges, Lancaster told attendees at Daily Maverick’s The Gathering 2026 in Cape Town.

While it is undeniable that South Africa has a high level of crime and violence, Lancaster insists that its path is not set in stone. She traced the origins of the crisis back to the goldfields of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, and the forced removals of communities like Sophiatown and District Six, which created conditions that facilitated the rise of criminal gangs.

Today, these criminal networks have expanded and diversified, intersecting with illicit drug trade, illegal firearms, extortion, and other industries. The murder rate has dropped substantially since the peak before democracy, but South Africa remains far from being safe. The murder rate is still more than double the global average and four times the African average, and incidents of kidnapping have quadrupled over the past decade.

Moreover, violence is highly concentrated, with about half of all murders occurring in just 12% of police precincts, mostly in metropolitan areas. The murder detection rate has plummeted from 31% in 2011 to over 10% today, indicating that while fewer murders are reported, the state is now less effective at identifying perpetrators.

To address this complex issue, Lancaster outlined eight priorities for reducing violence. These include eliminating illegal firearms, targeting organised crime networks, fostering government-business-academia-civil society-community cooperation, restoring trust in the police, investing in the criminal justice system and anti-corruption measures, prioritising prevention through supporting parents and addressing generational violence, ensuring safety is a central focus for local government, and measuring interventions to determine their effectiveness.

Ultimately, Lancaster emphasized that South Africa's crime trajectory is not preordained and that the country has successfully reduced murder rates before. The challenge now is to maintain these gains.