Super El Nino could bring 40°C temperatures to Malaysia by early 2027

KUALA LUMPUR: An impending Super El Nino phenomenon could bring extreme heatwaves to Malaysia between January and May next year, with temperatures potentially soaring to 40 degrees Celsius, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia). The probability of this event occurring is nearing 100 percent, based on international climate models and research.

Historical weather records indicate that strong El Nino episodes have been associated with soaring temperatures, arid conditions, and significant haze risks. During the Super El Nino events of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, maximum daily temperatures reached an unprecedented 40.1 degrees Celsius in Chuping, Perlis, and 39.3 degrees Celsius in Batu Embun, Pahang.

MetMalaysia estimates a 70 percent likelihood that the upcoming El Nino will surpass any such episode since 1950. Northern and inland parts of Peninsular Malaysia, as well as the interior regions of Sabah and Sarawak, are anticipated to face higher-than-average temperatures and a heightened risk of heatwaves starting from the end of the Northeast Monsoon through May 2027.

Meteorological stations in these areas may record temperatures reaching 40 degrees Celsius during the peak dry season. MetMalaysia also cautions of an elevated risk of forest fires and haze due to the hotter and drier climate. These risks could increase, posing potential hazards such as air pollution. Prolonged high temperatures exacerbate the likelihood of heatwaves and pose health concerns, particularly for vulnerable groups like children, the elderly, and outdoor laborers.

Reduced rainfall and prolonged dry spells may strain water resources, including reservoirs and dams, while affecting water-dependent agricultural and industrial sectors. The persistent dry climate renders vegetation more susceptible to burning, intensifying the risk of peatland and forest fires, both locally and transboundary.