Stormy seas yet to water down AUKUS as landmark looms

Five years have passed since the landmark AUKUS security deal between Australia, the US, and the UK came into effect, yet opponents persist in questioning its ability to fulfill its intended objectives. The deal, signed on Wednesday, March 15th, 2021, involves Australia acquiring nuclear-powered, but conventionally armed submarines at a cost of $368 billion. Critics argue that the agreement's future remains uncertain due to potential delays and problems with production and delivery.

Former Pentagon strategist Elbridge Colby has reviewed the nuclear-submarine deal and clarified the commitments of the allies. Security affairs expert Emma Shortis asserts that it would be negligent for the Australian federal government not to consider alternative plans in case of potential issues with the agreement.

The second pillar of the agreement focuses on sharing military technology and developing capabilities. It is expected that at least three Virginia-class submarines will be provided by the US in the early 2030s, followed by a new fleet of boats built by the 2040s. The Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst Malcolm Davis notes that both AUKUS pillars are on track.

Nuclear-powered submarines are considered the apex predator of naval warfare, providing Australia with a significant advantage. The deal was signed under former prime minister Scott Morrison and the Biden administration, and despite opposition from some within the Labor party, it has received support from Anthony Albanese, the current prime minister.

The presence of the US on Australian naval bases has raised concerns among some Australians. Submarine Rotational Force West is set to begin in 2027, allowing the rotation of US submarines at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia. The US has also established Naval Support Activity Stirling, which outlines the services provided to the Americans at their overseas bases. The Albanese government has rejected accusations that the increased US presence constitutes an American base.

Retired Rear Admiral Peter Briggs, presenting at an independent public inquiry examining the AUKUS partnership, suggested that Australia should have remained committed to the previously agreed French submarine deal. Concerns have also been raised about the perceived over-reliance on the United States, given its increasingly erratic foreign policy.

Former Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo expressed worries that Australia may have "given away our sovereignty" for reasons that history may judge unfavourably. However, Dr. Davis maintains that the submarines will remain sovereign Australian boats and will be controlled through the Australian Navy.