Selic Cut Odds Hit 95% as Brazil’s Copom Meets on Fed’s Days
Brazil · Markets Key Facts —The bet. Copom options traded on B3 put about a 95% probability on a 0.25-point Selic cut at the September 15–16 meeting, the exchange said on September 10; a hold gets roughly 3.5%. —The levels. The Selic stands at 14.00% after four straight cuts since June; the expected move would […] The post Selic Cut Odds Hit 95% as Brazil’s Copom Meets on Fed’s Days appeared…
Brazil's Copom committee is expected to cut the Selic interest rate by a quarter point during its meeting on September 15-16, according to a 95% probability indicated by options traders. The Selic rate currently stands at 14.00%, and a cut would bring it to 13.75%. This move would mark the 5th consecutive reduction in the benchmark rate since June.
The timing of the Brazilian decision coincides with the Federal Reserve's meeting on the same days, though the Fed is expected to maintain its interest rates, likely at 3.50%-3.75%. The market's focus is on the real exchange rate and its impact on inflation, which sits at 5.00% according to the central bank's Focus survey. The next major data point, August's inflation (IPCA) figure, is due on September 11, providing final input before the decision.
Written by urgent.news from The Rio Times's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
