Oil falls but head for 8% weekly gain on tight supply; US diesel hits record

Oil prices tumbled on Friday, yet were poised for an 8% weekly increase, as Middle East shipping routes came under threat, raising doubts about supply stability. Brent crude futures closed at $104.61 a barrel, edging down $3.02, or 2.81%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude closed at $100.05 a barrel, slipping 2.37%. Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since mid-May before retracting after a report from the Financial Times suggested Middle Eastern leaders were discussing a temporary agreement with Iran to manage shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Foreign ministers in the Middle East were reportedly trying to negotiate a deal with Iran to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, but traders quickly reassessed the risk on Friday. Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at the Price Futures Group, noted that the earlier concerns had eased. UBS energy analyst Giovanni Staunovo added that discussions of potential new talks in the Middle East were slightly depressing oil prices that day.

Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, essential for the kingdom's crude exports, saw smoke detected in its vicinity, with Iran-affiliated militants reportedly damaging a pumping station. This disruption could affect 7 million barrels of crude, but repairing it would require extensive repairs beyond a simple break in the pipeline. The International Energy Agency reported that Saudi Arabia's crude supply fell by 2.3 million barrels per day in August, the lowest level in over three decades, due to attacks on energy facilities.

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis reached the island of Perim in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, potentially straining this critical shipping route. Iran claimed responsibility for attacking 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, following U.S. attacks on Iranian oil tankers. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened to escalate its response to further attacks.

European Central Bank officials indicated a possibility of further interest rate hikes if energy price hikes, fueled by the ongoing war, continue to impact other prices in the euro zone. Supply disruptions from the Iran war, coupled with Ukrainian attacks on Russia's refineries, pushed the U.S. national average diesel price past $6 a gallon, marking the first time it had reached this level.