Morning Briefing: Scheitert der Haushalt, scheitert der Kanzler

Good morning, dear readers. In a democracy, power gradually erodes until its loss becomes an unstoppable cascade. Often, this transition begins with the distancing of one's own people. According to my Berlin colleagues' research, Chancellor Friedrich Merz finds himself at this critical juncture. The doubts about Merz's position within the Union have been circulating for weeks.

Now, my colleagues Daniel Delhaes and Jan Hildebrand have uncovered something of a different quality. This pertains to the parliamentary circle of the Union faction's Mittelstand. Not only does this encompass the power center of CDU and CSU in the Bundestag, but it also includes the chancellor's fan base. When the circle's executive returned from a dinner with Merz on Wednesday, one attendee revealed that a deputy CDU general secretary, tasked with stepping down, was simply continuing in her role.

Union state premiers had been distancing themselves from the chancellor for days. Moreover, 20 Union members in the Bundestag reportedly found the current federal budget unacceptable. With the coalition holding only a twelve-vote majority, the situation poses a serious risk: If the budget fails, so does the chancellor.