Global Softwood Supply Growth Set to Lag Demand Through 2035
Global softwood markets are entering a period of tighter supply. Softwood roundwood supply has remained essentially flat since 2000 despite continued growth in overall roundwood production, and is forecast to increase by only about 0.5% annually through 2035. At the same time, demand for construction timber, packaging and biomass is expected to continue growing faster ...
Global softwood markets are facing tighter supply as demand continues to outpace growth. Since 2000, softwood roundwood supply has remained steady despite overall roundwood production increasing, with forecasts indicating an annual increase of only 0.5% through 2035. This creates a growing imbalance between supply and demand, putting pressure on softwood logs' availability and prices.
However, the global picture is not uniform, as regional differences play a significant role. North American softwood roundwood supply has dropped by nearly 20% since 2000, while Europe, Russia, and the rest of the world have each seen an 18% increase. These shifts in regional supply dynamics are crucial to understanding the future of global softwood supply.
The US South presents the most potential for additional softwood roundwood supply, with abundant timber resources and harvests still below biological growth. However, labor shortages, infrastructure issues, and the substantial investment required may hinder the realization of this potential.
Canada has experienced declining harvests, particularly in British Columbia, but is expected to stabilize and recover modestly. Nevertheless, this recovery is unlikely to return the region to its previous supply levels.
Europe faces tighter constraints, as many forests are already harvested near sustainable biological limits, and sustainability policies, forest protection, and climate impacts further restrict growth. The outlook indicates limited overall change, with growth only in the Nordic region and declines in Central Europe and the Baltics.
Russia holds significant, underutilized softwood potential, but political risks, restrictions on market access, infrastructure limitations, and investment requirements may prevent much of the country's resource from becoming available.
Latin America and Asia-Pacific have competitive plantation forestry but have seen little change in softwood plantation area over the past decade. Investment in hardwood plantations has increased, while softwood plantation investment remained relatively stable. Productivity gains should support modest softwood supply growth, but not a major expansion in the region.
Lastly, Japan and New Zealand have lower available supply due to uneven age-class structures, which limit their growth potential.
Written by urgent.news from Hellenic Shipping News's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
