El IPC de EEUU se estanca en el 3,4% y eleva la presión sobre la Fed para subir tipos

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained steady at 3.4% year-over-year in August, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week. The CPI data, released this Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, showed the index growing 0.4% month-over-month, matching analyst expectations and confirming the stubbornness of inflation.

The gasoline price surge due to the U.S.-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has significantly contributed to the energy index's 16.3% increase over the past year, up 27.4% from July. Natural gas prices rose 4.4%, while electricity climbed 3.8%. Food prices increased 2.7%, slightly below the July rate. The underlying CPI, excluding energy and food, decelerated by one-tenth, slowing its 2.4% year-over-year growth.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the U.S. Federal Reserve will meet next Tuesday and Wednesday to decide on interest rate policy. The meeting, chaired by newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, will likely be marked by conflicting pressures regarding the money supply's trajectory. While persistent price increases, expectations of escalating oil prices from a likely continuation of the war, and the U.S. public debt cost surge have fueled calls to lower rates, the strong job creation data last week (162,000 jobs in August) has fueled arguments for rate hikes to support the labor market.

Market bets on a potential rate hike next week have surged from 70% to around 90%. Conversely, President Donald Trump has explicitly urged Warsh to lower interest rates. Last week, Trump, citing the employment data, threatened to sever commercial ties with countries maintaining a trade surplus with the U.S. if the Fed does not ease monetary policy.

For now, the Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, but internal divisions have grown, and the upcoming meeting will reveal how much "a good fight" Fed Chair Warsh wants.