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Cómo armar la cartera de inversión tras la subida de tipos

El Banco Central Europeo ha subido esta semana los tipos de interés del 2,25% al 2,50% y la Reserva Federal podría aumentarlos desde el 3,50%-3,75% la próxima semana. Las tensiones inflacionistas meten presión a los bancos centrales y es momento de adaptar la cartera de inversión al nuevo escenario. Leer

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To build a well-balanced investment portfolio amid rising interest rates, it is essential to reduce vulnerability to products most affected by higher borrowing costs, according to Francisco Quintana, ING's director of strategy. Roberto Scholtes, head of strategy at Singular Bank, believes that contained interest rate hikes will have a limited impact on portfolios.

Antonio Castelo of iBroker warns that a sharp rise in rates, driven by strong growth or high inflation, could have a very different impact on the market. In this environment of monetary tightening, bonds are once again competing directly with equities, raising the bar for risk assets significantly.

For a balanced investor with a medium-term horizon, experts suggest allocating around 45-50% to equities, 35-40% to fixed income, 7-10% to gold and defensive commodities, and keeping the remainder in cash. While further rate hikes cannot be ruled out, most of the movement has already been factored into asset valuations, according to Emilio Ortiz, director of investments at Mutuactivos.

Higher-yielding stocks may be negatively affected, while companies with strong cash generation, sound balance sheets, pricing power, and predictable earnings may benefit from higher rates.

Within equities, experts recommend minimizing exposure to highly leveraged companies, those whose business models are sensitive to financing costs, and those with long-term growth prospects. Sectors such as banking, insurance, energy, and well-managed industrial and infrastructure firms tend to perform well in a rising rate environment.

The financial sector, in particular, has been a strong performer, and it is advisable to invest in proven technology companies, such as AI and semiconductors, while being cautious of exorbitant valuations.

In fixed income, there is a notable opportunity to invest in high-quality government and corporate bonds with short to medium maturities, capturing the benefits of rising rates without taking on excessive risk. Government bonds, especially those from countries with a low risk of default, are preferable to private sector debt. Central banks' interventions in the long end of the yield curve are increasingly driven by fiscal needs rather than direct policy decisions, which introduces additional risk.

Written by urgent.news from Expansion ES's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.

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