Climate 'Feedback Loops' Could Worsen Global Warming By 30%, Study Finds

A new study reveals that rising global temperatures from fossil fuel emissions are transforming forests, wetlands, and tundra into sources of further warming. Thawing permafrost, more intense wildfires, and warming lakes release methane and carbon dioxide from trees and soils, exacerbating the climate crisis. While scientists have known about these feedback loops, emissions from natural sources have been largely overlooked in climate projections.

The study found that natural sources could amplify global warming by 20% to 30% by the end of this century, adding 0.2°C to 0.4°C to the global average temperature. This additional heating is significant, depending on the actions taken by countries to combat the climate crisis. Under optimistic climate scenarios, natural sources will add 0.2°C of warming, while under a worse case scenario, 0.4°C will likely be added.

Current government policies are likely to lead to a global temperature rise of 2.6°C above pre-industrial times, causing severe disruptions and hardships for billions of people. The study's lead author, Sam Abernethy, emphasized that the hidden multiplier is currently missing from climate models, leading to underestimation of warming and overestimation of carbon emissions.

Co-author Rob Jackson described the disruption of the world's carbon cycles as a wake-up call, stressing the importance of including these findings in future climate policies to meet global climate goals.