Chartbook 474: The state is the problem - the AfD’s anti-systemic diagnosis of contemporary Germany.

The German political system is currently in a state of crisis, with Chancellor Merz's position becoming increasingly uncertain. During the recent Saxon-Anhalt elections, most prominent members of the CDU, from various regions across Germany, opted not to join Merz in party headquarters to witness the unfolding disaster. This is highlighted by the headline in Bild Zeitung: Merz, alone at home, represents the grim situation.

The defeat of the CDU and the rise of the AfD were not unexpected outcomes. The government established by Merz following the elections in February 2025, which resulted from the collapse of Olaf Scholz's three-way coalition, has always operated based on a weak foundation of legitimacy. A crucial majority that permitted the formation of a dynamic fiscal policy was actually obtained by the previous parliament before the new members took office.

This maneuver allowed the traditional parties from West Germany, namely the CDU and SPD, to prevent dealing with the actual electoral landscape of Germany in 2025.

The situation in Saxony-Anhalt is not only marked by the surge of the AfD but also the significant loss of the CDU, which holds a plurality in most parts of the country. Despite having a popular prime minister, the CDU experienced a 25 percent drop in votes from 2021 to the AfD. If the AfD can achieve similar success across Germany, mobilizing new voters while taking away a substantial portion of the CDU's supporters, Merz's party faces a disaster akin to the SPD, its main rival.