Anthropic says AI could bring both 15% growth and mass unemployment by 2030
Anthropic has published an economic model projecting how AI might reshape the US economy by 2030, and its three scenarios range from barely perceptible to a boom with no historical precedent, including one in which GDP grows 15% a year while nearly a fifth of office workers are out of a job.
Anthropic, the company behind Claude AI, has published a study detailing the potential economic impacts of artificial intelligence. Their research models AI's influence on the US economy, dividing scenarios into modest, substantial, and extreme. In the modest scenario, AI contributes a slight 1.6% increase in GDP by 2030 without significantly affecting employment.
Conversely, the substantial scenario sees AI doubling the US economy's normal growth rate to 5.4%, leading to an 8.3% boost in GDP and a 3.9% drop in cognitive employment (managers, professionals, sales, and office workers). This results in 4.5% unemployment among office workers, with wages rising for most but dipping slightly for those in cognitive jobs.
The extreme scenario is far more dire, predicting a 15.4% annual growth rate, 32.4% higher GDP, and a 21.5% decrease in cognitive employment, which reaches 17.9% unemployment. In this worst-case scenario, workers' wages fall by 11.5%, while the wages of those with capital income surge by 33.6%. The most striking finding is that labor's share of national income would plummet from 60% to 45.2%, while capital income rises more than 80%.
The public's expectations align with the substantial scenario, while Anthropic's CEO, Dario Amodei, warns of potential job losses and increased unemployment, aligning more closely with the extreme scenario. The study also acknowledges that factors like AI adoption and potential misuse or catastrophic outcomes aren't included in the model, sparking concerns from industry insiders about the responsible development and deployment of AI technologies.
Written by urgent.news from Euronews's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
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