25 years on, the Middle East is still trapped in a post-9/11 world

As the world commemorates the 25th anniversary of the September 11 attacks, the Middle East remains entrenched in the aftermath of those events. The impact of 9/11 demonstrated the expansive reach of non-state actors and, despite the war on terror, extremist organizations continued to proliferate across Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Libya and beyond. Simultaneously, regional powers, notably Iran, intensified their strategies to bolster these groups.

The incident highlighted that although superpowers possess significant influence, it does not equate to immunity from attacks or an automatic victory against weaker foes. For instance, Russia currently struggles to shield its territory from Ukraine's attacks, and the US and Israel, despite their dominance over Iran's airspace, have not succeeded in safeguarding American assets or allies in the region, nor have they managed to influence Tehran.

The asymmetric nature of warfare, unconventional forces, and the ongoing cat-and-mouse game between offensive and defensive weaponry have disrupted the traditional international power structure. The US response to 9/11, characterized by swift military action driven by anger, inadvertently set a precedent for this approach. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, while initially successful in terms of military victories, ultimately proved strategically unsuccessful, resulting in countless casualties, resource depletion, and geopolitical instability.

The recent Israeli attacks, perceived as a new 9/11, prompted an aggressive military response. However, this strategy has resulted in a fragmented regional landscape, marked by perpetual conflicts rather than a cohesive post-war order. The ongoing Iran conflict, in part, stems from the aftermath of earlier American interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Initially, Iran was somewhat contained by Iraq and the Taliban, but the post-9/11 wars rendered both of these adversaries ineffective. Consequently, Iran emerged as the dominant strategic power in Iraq and expanded its influence into Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen.

Ultimately, the sooner Iran, Israel, and the US prioritize reason over rage, the more likely it is that the region can achieve a stable outcome and a cooperative, prosperous future. The post-9/11 wars, initially aimed at reshaping the Middle East in America's image, instead inadvertently paved the way for Iran's influence. In essence, this latest conflict is an attempt to rectify the strategic damage inflicted by the previous two.