Widespread COVID death underreporting around the world raises broader questions

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted governments worldwide to grapple with an enduring challenge: accurately measuring and communicating the crisis's severity to the public. According to a study by Ariel Karlinsky from Hebrew University and Professor Moses Shayo from Hebrew University and King's College London, published in the Journal of Economic Growth, many countries failed to report their COVID-19 deaths accurately.

The researchers compared official COVID-19 death counts with estimates derived from excess mortality, which tracks deaths exceeding what would typically occur. Globally, governments documented 5.08 million COVID-19 deaths in 2020 and 2021, while the researchers estimate the actual mortality figure was 12.47 million. Their analysis reveals that roughly 45%–55% of governments underreported COVID-19 mortality, with underreporting being more prevalent than overreporting.

It is important to note that the researchers do not assume deliberate manipulation behind every reporting discrepancy. Differences in a country's ability to diagnose illnesses, register deaths, and maintain reliable statistical systems vary, and these factors alone do not fully explain the discrepancies. The study explores whether the variation in reporting gaps can be attributed to differences in state capacity.

However, state capacity explains only a small portion of the observed variation. A stronger link emerges when considering the constraints governments face. Countries with robust institutional checks and balances exhibit significantly less underreporting. Additionally, transparency is higher in countries where citizens are better equipped to assess official information, indicated by factors such as education levels and internet access.

The researchers also found that countries holding elections during the pandemic and nations with a communist legacy generally demonstrated higher levels of underreporting, although they stress that these relationships do not establish causation.

The broader implication of this study is that incentives to present information favorably may exist in various political systems. What matters most is whether governments have effective institutional and social mechanisms that facilitate the detection and challenge of inaccurate information. While COVID-19 provided researchers with a unique opportunity to compare how different governments handled a similar crisis, the findings have broader implications.

Governments regularly produce statistics that influence decisions related to economic growth, unemployment, public health, international aid, and other critical policy areas. During the pandemic, reported figures also impacted international decisions, including travel restrictions. This study underscores that inaccurate official information can have implications beyond the country that generated it, complicating international efforts in areas such as foreign aid, climate action, and vaccination campaigns.

In today's fast-paced information environment, where misleading claims can spread rapidly through digital platforms and AI-generated content, the study's use of excess mortality as an independent benchmark offers a robust method to identify reporting gaps that are not easily explained by statistical capacity alone. The principle applies beyond COVID-19, emphasizing the importance of systems capable of independently verifying, challenging, and correcting information.

Ultimately, the study concludes that while official statistics should not be automatically distrusted, they highlight the necessity of institutions and societies that can hold governments accountable. Ariel Karlinsky et al.