Why The United States’ Belated Critical Minerals Gambit Won’t Stop China

The United States has made several efforts to counter China's dominance in critical minerals, which are essential for the energy transition and AI boom. President Trump has taken a proactive approach, announcing numerous deals and investments in the critical minerals and rare earth sectors. MP Materials and U.S. Rare Earths have been among the key beneficiaries of these deals, with the U.S. committing a $3 billion investment in critical minerals projects across the country.

A $1.4 billion conditional loan to Sila Nanotechnologies is the highlight of this financing round, aimed at scaling up production of next-generation battery materials. However, despite these efforts, concerns persist that Washington's investments won't be enough to challenge China's dominance in critical minerals, which has been achieved through decades of state subsidies, strategic infrastructure financing, and willingness to bear environmental costs.

China now accounts for roughly 60% of global critical minerals mining and over 90% of the refining and processing of critical materials, leaving little time for the U.S. to catch up.