What Russia Is Really Up To in Europe
Moscow doesn’t want a conventional war, but it is busy fighting a hybrid one.
The Kremlin's propagandists have long threatened to bomb European capitals, despite diplomats insisting no war is imminent. Recent intelligence suggests hundreds of clandestine sabotage operations—cyberattacks, arson, undersea-cable ruptures, and severed pig heads left outside French mosques—have been attributed to Russia. U.S. assessments suggest a conventional Russian attack on a NATO country could happen between now and 2029, but Moscow might also content itself with sabotage and intimidation.
This hybrid campaign is the war Russia wants or needs. The Kremlin's message to Europe is to stop supporting Ukraine. Setbacks in Ukraine, including battlefield stalling and drone attacks causing fuel shortages, have led to escalated operations in Europe. Fires at ammunition plants and explosive-laden drones near European infrastructure are part of this strategy.
European involvement in Ukraine has deepened, with Ukraine manufacturing arms in multiple European countries and receiving substantial financial assistance. Russia's hybrid war tactics, including drone discoveries and improvised explosive devices, aim to scare Europe into submission. Despite Ukrainian successes, Russia persists in its hybrid war, seeking concessions from Europe to end the conflict.
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