US Dollar: CPI and Fed path guide Greenback – BBH
Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) Elias Haddad highlights that the US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading just above recent lows and below its 200-day moving average, with the upcoming United States (US) August Consumer Price Index (CPI) seen as the key driver for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September 16 deci
Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad observes the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading just above its recent lows and under the 200-day moving average. The upcoming United States August Consumer Price Index (CPI) is viewed as a critical factor in the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision. A higher CPI reading could secure a rate hike and strengthen the Dollar, while a lower CPI print may prompt a more dovish stance and weigh on USD.
The US August CPI report will be the primary near-term market driver influencing the Fed's September 16 rate decision. The US August Producer Price Index (PPI) report, released tomorrow, will provide a preliminary gauge before the more important CPI data. The PPI Services less Trade, Transportation, and Warehousing could be inflated in the calculation, but the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) methodology change, scheduled for September 30, aims to address this issue.
A robust CPI reading would solidify expectations for a September rate hike and reinforce a firmer USD, whereas a weaker CPI report would bolster the argument for maintaining current monetary policy and weaken the US Dollar.
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